With the 2024 Presidential election just around the corner, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you might be wondering how the election could influence the housing market.

It’s a valid concern—after all, purchasing or selling a home is a significant life event, and it’s natural to question whether a major national event like an election might affect your decision.

Historically, the impact of Presidential elections on the housing market has been minor and short-lived. Here’s what we know about how home sales, prices, and mortgage rates have behaved during these periods.

Home Sales Trends

Typically, home sales experience a slight dip in November of election years. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, notes:

“Home sales usually remain steady compared to non-election years, except for a slight slowdown in November during an election year.”

This slowdown is mainly due to people’s hesitancy to make significant decisions during a time of potential change. However, this is usually a brief dip. Data shows that home sales often rebound in December and tend to increase the following year.

In fact, looking at data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales have increased in the year following nine of the last 11 Presidential elections.

Home Prices Stability

And what about home prices? Do they fall during election years? Not necessarily. Residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist explains:

“An election year doesn’t really change the existing price trends in the market.”

Home prices tend to be quite robust, typically rising year-over-year, regardless of elections. According to the latest data from NAR, home prices have increased the year after seven of the last eight Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rate Movements

Mortgage rates are another critical factor since they influence your monthly payments when buying a home. Historical data from Freddie Mac indicates that in eight of the last 11 Presidential election years, mortgage rates have decreased from July through November.

With analysts predicting a slight easing in mortgage rates towards the end of the year, this trend could continue, offering potential homebuyers lower monthly payments.

What This Means for You

So, the takeaway here? While Presidential elections can temporarily affect the housing market, these effects are generally minor and fleeting. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, summarizes it well:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t look much different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most people looking to buy or sell, the election shouldn’t drastically alter their plans.

Bottom Line

Though it’s natural to feel a bit uneasy during an election year, the historical data reassures us that the housing market typically remains stable and resilient. If you’re looking to navigate the market, whether it’s an election year or not, feel free to reach out to us. We're here to help answer you have about the Las Vegas housing market. Let’s connect and ensure you’re well-positioned to make informed decisions.

Graham Team Real Estate • (702) 930-9551 • Team@grahamteamnv.com

3007 W Horizon Ridge Pkwy, Ste. 210, Henderson, NV 89052