Should You Wait for a Recession To Buy or Sell a Home?

Here’s Why That Strategy Could Backfire.

If you’ve been stalling your move while scanning headlines for the word “recession,” you’re not alone. Howeverm you might be reading the market all wrong.

A recent survey by JBREC and Keeping Current Matters found 68% of people are hitting pause on their real estate plans because of economic uncertainty. But not all of them are scared. Some are strategizing. They’re banking on a slowdown, hoping it’ll bring cheaper homes and lower mortgage rates.

And it’s not a totally wild idea. As Realtor.com notes:

“In 2025 Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8%) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home.”

The logic? If a recession hits, the Fed might cut interest rates, which could drag mortgage rates down and make homes more affordable. And yes, mortgage rates historically dip during recessions. In fact, in every single one of the last six economic slowdowns, mortgage rates took a tumble. So if you’re holding out for that kind of opportunity, you’re not imagining it.

But here’s the part that many buyers (and some sellers) forget: home prices don’t typically follow rates down.

According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), home prices actually increased in four of the last six recessions. The only dramatic price drop we’ve seen was during 2008, and that crash was a unicorn, not a playbook.

What’s more, we’re still facing a supply shortage, not a surplus. Yes, inventory is slowly climbing in some markets, but it’s still not enough to satisfy demand. That means prices? They’re still resilient. Maybe not soaring, but steadily ticking upward.

As Navy Federal Credit Union’s Robert Frick puts it:

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point...”

So What Does That Mean for You?

If you're waiting for the “perfect storm” of low mortgage rates and low home prices, you might be chasing a mirage. Sure, a recession could nudge rates lower. But expecting a price drop on top of that? Not so fast.

Instead of gambling on a hypothetical future, make a plan based on today’s reality. Rates are fluctuating. Prices are holding firm. And if the right home or offer comes along, waiting could cost you more than moving forward now.

Graham Team Real Estate • (702) 930-9551 • Team@grahamteamnv.com

3007 W Horizon Ridge Pkwy, Ste. 210, Henderson, NV 89052